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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest race is distinctly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and recent strugglers improving in unison. During an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still